#12: 100% chance of dying
#12: 100% chance of dying
The thing about feelings is everyone's got 'em.
issue 12: Dec. 7, 2022
A quick Triathlonish update: As I’ve said to a few of you this is a bit like bumper bowling or steering. You try something, adjust, come back the other direction, see what works, etc. So some things we’re doing these days:
First and foremost, always your Wednesday morning triathlon-ish newsletter
And our semi-weekly-ish podcast
Then for paid subscribers, adding Q&As (a good one coming this Friday), trying out a few threads to get your all’s take on tri issues (what do you think about using the chat function on this Substack app instead? I’m not sure we all want more apps in our lives though), and tried a monthly-ish roundup of big gear news. Let me know what you think.
New ‘all sports, no balls’ swim caps should be here any day and will be heading out then to the first 50 paid subscribers. (And we may raffle off a few extras for a year-end contest.)
But mostly, this is your classic free Wednesday morning newsletter. Maybe this week will actually be shorter, I’d like to think so, but it never is.
- Kelly
LISTEN: This week we talk with Kate Veronneau, who helped organize the first women’s Tour de France earlier this year. What can triathlon learn?
Just share better
The closest I’ve come to getting killed by a driver was actually a few months ago when I was walking across the street—in a crosswalk, with a green light. I was doing exactly what you’re supposed to do. Yet, a large construction equipment truck turned left from oncoming traffic into me, and the only reason I avoided getting killed was because I was looking at the driver and realized at the last minute he wasn’t going to stop and I started running as fast as I could (and I was fortunately dressed for the gym!), getting past his bumper just as it whipped next to me.
There is no being a little bit injured if you get run over at that angle at that speed by that big of a construction truck, no such thing as an oops. And the driver knew it, how close he’d come to being on the evening news. When I stopped swearing and my heart rate went down, when he ran back to me, he just kept saying over and over: I never saw you, I never even saw you.
This super bizarre New York Times story about Ironman XC had many (many) gems, but one of them was this quote about a risk officer for a large company:
“Le Jamtel did the research and crunched the numbers, and he concluded that if he kept cycling Ironman distances on open roads there was a 100 percent chance he would be killed.”
Obviously this is zero percent good math. But even if we don’t have a 100% chance of dying, it’s definitely closer to 100% than most of us would like.
This is a uniquely American problem: the rise in cycling and pedestrian deaths. And, make no mistake, they are very clearly on the rise.
Something the Ironman CEO said once, when the topic was safety in races, was that our athletes have no appetite for risk. This sounds funny, when you think about it, but it’s true. There are some things in the world where you know you’re taking on a certain amount of risk—mountain climbing, war reporting—but endurance sports are actually not one of those things. It’s all managed optional suffering. A marathon medical director I talked with last week called it ‘a controlled disaster.’ We expect to be relatively safe. We expect to be able to go for a ride or a run and not get killed. We expect our kids to be able to ride down the street and be safe. And while our perception of how dangerous cycling has become is probably distorted (crime is also not a major issue, chill out), it is getting more dangerous. That’s well-documented.
And the thing is: We know why.
We know that American cars have gotten bigger on average. We know the number of large cars and light SUVs has skyrocketed in the U.S. We know this correlates to higher rates of death or serious injury, especially with kids, because of where the hit hits, the speed and force, and the increase in blind spots. We know that the way to decrease fatal accidents (besides smaller cars) is to slow down traffic with calming measures and build streets for pedestrians first, not drivers. We know all of this, it’s well well researched.
We know why people are dying. We just don’t care enough to stop it from happening. We don’t treat it like a real fatality or crime or manslaughter; it’s just an accident. We’d rather just tell everyone it’s the cost of convenience, that the solution is sharing the road nicer, being a more well-behaved better cyclist, wearing a helmet (which shifts the blame), instead of making our own driving slower and more inconvenient, our cars smaller. So let me say it: You do not need a bigger car to fit your bike and gear; your bike and gear will fit just fine. And there was no helmet that would have stopped me from being killed if that semi-truck had run me down.
Here’s every cyclist who was killed in 2020.
Are we done freaking out yet?
In way less serious news: Has everyone calmed down, had some time to process their feelings. Realized triathlon goes on after the official official news last week.
I’m not super interested in all the various ‘how xx person reacted and feels’ articles. Everyone has feelings, that’s how feelings work. I’m more interested in the why and how behind the feelings, and what we we build from here.
A few things as we move forward:
- We talked with Ironman CEO Andrew Messick the evening of the announcement. I know he’s done a lot of Q&As this last week, but obviously our live one was the best. We’re also talking to Diana Bertsch, the world championship RD, for a Q&A later this week.
- Quite a few of the questions that have been asked are actually answered in the Ironman FAQ.
- They have new slot allocations laid out, too; interesting note is that the men’s and women’s qualifying spots are now being treated as two separate pools (which should have always been the case).
- Triathlete also has 11 triathlon goals that don’t involve qualifying for Kona. Just a thought.
Mark your calendar
Let’s call this upcoming weekend the last of the year. Then we’ll all stop racing and focus on our families.
- Bahrain 70.3 - Friday, Dec. 9: If Holly Lawrence can get her bike delivered in time, then I feel confident she should win this. The men I’m less sure about. Vince Luis may have rebounded from a busy past few weekends but Henri Schoeman should also be in there, along with Pieter Heemeryck and who knows. (No live coverage as far as I can tell)
- New Zealand 70.3 - Saturday, Dec. 10: Pretty much a Kiwi race of Kiwis (and also Australians). (Also no live coverage as far as I can tell.)
- The PTO highlights broadcast - Dec. 17 @ 11 a.m. ET on Fox Sports 1. And I hear CLASH Daytona will air on broadcast TV on New Year’s; details TK.
Best of the weekend
- Angi Olmo’s win at CLASH Daytona was quite emotional. (Her coach posted some about why.) I gather she quit the sport for awhile after the Olympics last year, wasn’t sure if she was done done or how to find her fire again. Seems like it had to do with federation bullshit and stress. But she got a wildcard spot to CLASH Daytona and knocked it out of the park, and everyone cried.
- Vince Luis was quite dominant in the men’s race, too. The real winner though? The CLASH live coverage. Controlled racetrack + NASCAR tech crew and commentators = excellent graphics, leaderboard, and ability to follow the whole thing. You can watch it all on Youtube now.
- At Indian Wells 70.3, Lionel Sanders had a panic attack in the cold water, in case you needed more evidence that pros are just like us. (It is very cold water, fyi.) And Sam Long put together another solid middle-distance race for the win. Triathlete did all the math to figure out how many races everyone’s done this year and apparently the answer for Sam is 12. The answer for Jackson Laundry is that he did two races in the same weekend: 8th at Daytona in Florida on Friday and second at Indian Wells in California on Sunday. For the record, that’s a very long cross-country flight + drive, and he had the CLASH race mechanic take his bike apart while he was running.
- Paula Findlay seemed like she was absolutely going to run away with the Indian Wells win again, but instead barely held off Tamara Jewett, who ran a 1:14 and made up six minutes on the run (!).
- At Ironman Western Australia, which is apparently a big race for Australians, Sarah Crowley and Max Neumann won. And, interestingly, pro ultra runner Lucy Bartholomew did her first Ironman, took fourth in her age-group and the spot to women’s Kona.
- Patagonman, of the Xtreme triathlon genre, attracted Ben Hoffman this year, who, yes, won (along with Caroline Livesey on the women’s side), but it’s not really about the winning.
Courtesy: Patagonman
The -ish
A few triathletes made appearances at the California International Marathon this past weekend, most notably former pro triathlete Lauren Goss taking second in 2:27:41 in her debut. But one of the best things about CIM is that lots of athletes target it for their Olympic Trials qualifier (44 women and 41 men hit the standard this weekend, even with the harder standard this go-round) and Fast Women keeps track of all the names of all the women. I’m 100% here for the effort to bring so many women into the Olympic Trials, elevating the sport, spreading the vibe, creating a movement. (Instagram/Fast Women)
And yes, you want to watch the video of the final OTQ woman. Thank god the rules changed and chip time counts for women now (since they start behind the men), because her clock time was 2:37:01 but her chip time was 2:36:57. (Twitter)
Sika Henry took a break from rookie pro triathlon-ing to win her debut 100K and crack the top ten 100K times for the year. (Women’s Running)
Twitter is a huge boon to smaller sports. Obviously, yes, to all sports, but small sports like ours don’t have a lot of other places. So Twitter imploding is unfortunate. Have we all decided where to go now to make triathlon jokes and watch amazing videos like this? (Outside/Twitter)
Mass participation events are being considered at the Olympic, like the first ever Olympic open marathon in Paris, and triathlon would certainly be one of the nexts… (World Triathlon/Inside the Games)
A leading heptathlete who collapsed during the record heat wave at the Olympic Trials last summer, when the heptathlon wasn’t rescheduled, is suing USATF. (Runner’s World)
Famous chef Michael Ginor died during the swim portion of Israel 70.3 (Triathlete)
There’s a new Challenge race in Colombia. (Challenge)
What do you think about our gear news to know this month column? I was thinking it’d be cool to sum up all the important drops, key studies, or news in one place. (Triathlonish)
Triathlete has a sneak peek at five new shoes triathletes will want next year. That doesn’t include the new new Next%, but let’s be real, triathletes are gonna want that too. (Though I think some of the alternative new versions are way more interesting—even if they’re not all going to be legal in triathlon starting Jan. 1.) (Triathlete/Youtube)
Has pro triathlon become too much of a wild west when it comes to rules? Making things up, though, is part of the DNA of triathlon. (220 Triathlon)
Speaking of DNA of triathlon: The New York Times magazine story on the fact that rich execs pay a lot of money to do Ironman XC is both totally un-insightful and also full of absolute on-point insight. (For the record, the XCers I know once explained to me it actually saves them money once you factor in rooms, flights, and meals for family. But I’m not sure the NYT comment section is on board with that logic.) My biggest complaint: One does not “run” an Ironman. (New York Times)
And the short list of the Global Triathlon Awards have been announced. It’s a crazy mix and it includes me!! Thank you all of you all for the nominations. (Endurance Biz)
One last thing
Everything about this is accurate.
Sorry to hear about your close call. It's troubling that we have to factor risk of being run-over on to our training. In last few years, I over indexed on the risk and ended up riding more and more indoors. I think that ended up having a negative impact on my mental health. I'm trying to ride outside more these days, but am very conscious of where I ride. Wide shoulders or bike paths preferred. But I still worry that my wife, kids, and mother would get a call that something happened to me. I understand life is about weighing risks, but it's sad that we have to weigh this risk.