#142: This newsletter is an age-graded A+

And equal opportunity. Because I say it is so.

issue #142: July 2, 2025

All-sporters, it’s a holiday week here in the U.S. And apparently in Canada, though different holidays. And I was up in Tahoe all of last week for TrailCon and Western States, so personally I could use the break. I plan to go to the TLC concert at the county fair on Thursday evening and not think about triathlon for at least multiple days.

But first. Lots to talk about…

- Kelly

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In which we all have to learn about age-grading

Ironman announced this morning a new system for world championship qualification based on “performance” instead of participation numbers. I’ve spent a lot of time understanding the details in the last few days, so here’s the Cliff notes:

• Every AG winner will get a world champs spot; that spot can roll down the podium but no farther

• The rest of the qualifying spots at a race will be handed out by going down an overall ranked list of age-graded times

• Age-graded times will be determined via a calculation (based on the last five years of world champs), where every age-group has a kind of handicap factor that you multiply your time by to get your age-graded time

• The pool of men’s & women’s slots are being treated as one combined pool for Kona spots and men & women will be age-graded and compared against each other; however, 70.3 Worlds spots will now be treated as separate men’s & women’s pools and the number of spots available will finally (hallelujah!) be equal

Honestly, it kinda seems like a whole lot of work to avoid just making the Kona spots equal. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Whenever I’ve explained the outlines of this new system to people, the reaction is: “…OK?” Like, yes, I think we’ve all generally accepted that a performance-based qualification system is better than a participation-based qualification system. And, under the old model that rewarded large amounts of mediocre participation, smaller age-groups would get screwed regardless of how the best of those athletes performed. So, sure, this is…better?

But it’s hard for me to get super excited about qualifying to a world championship via an algorithm, because you can make an algorithm do whatever you want it to do. And you can say “equal opportunity” and “fair” as many times as you want, but it doesn’t make it true or not true. People have used those terms to justify almost whatever they wanted to justify throughout history.

The reality is it’ll probably look about the same in Kona; a little different — slightly more women (~35% v. ~27%), slightly more older athletes — but about the same.

Because if you base an age-grading or handicap calculation on who is already at Kona then it’s going to reflect that back, to a degree. Any algorithm fundamentally is based on the past, it can not be forward thinking or project what is possible, it can only lock into place existing structures whether you like those structures or not. Think about it this way: If somehow this year the Kona results started being wildly different, it’d take five years for that to be fully reflected in the “adjustment factor.”

An aside: Even though at 70.3 Worlds the men’s & women’s races have been on two separates days for nearly the last decade, spots were actually still proportionally allocated out of one combined pool – with women getting fewer spots for no good reason. And I now consider it a small victory that we’ve all at least finally agreed that was dumb.

Age-grading is interesting in running or Crossfit. It’s a fun fact, an asterisk to compare your half-marathon to someone else’s half-marathon. But the reason it’s always just been sort of an interesting aside is because it’s a way to compare and handicap people who are not actually winning.

You know who the actual best 31-year-old triathlete in the world is? Kristian Blummenfelt. The best 42-year-old woman? Anne Haug. Personally, I think coming up with a way to rank all the 31-year-olds who aren’t as good and then compare them to each other kind of throws into stark relief how ridiculous the whole concept is: A world championship for the people who are the same age as the pros but just not quite as good. It’s all made-up anyway, is my point. We could make it up however we want.

One last thought: One of my favorite races in the world, the Dipsea, is a handicapped race by age and gender. (And “The Handicapper” adjusts the handicaps every year.) But it’s run as a headstart system, instead of a post-race calculation, so whoever crosses the line first wins — which is way more fun to have 65-year-old women sprinting it out against 14-year-old boys.

While I’m sure there’ll be a whole niche triathlon industry doing the math to approximate what qualifying times you need to do at each race, the new Ironman age-grading system is actually going to make it impossible to know while you’re racing if you’re in a qualifying position or not. You’ll have to wait until after everyone is finished and the calculations are all done. So. Wouldn’t it at least be way more interesting if we did it in reverse? As a head start calculation for every age-group, and then the first xx number of athletes across the line get to go to Kona. At least it’d be wild and fun. If it worked that way, I’d probably sign up for an Ironman again.

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Photo: Alexander Koerner/IRONMAN

A list of all the things that happened at IM Frankfurt

IM Frankfurt this weekend was the men’s European Ironman Championship — and, yes, Kristian Blummenfelt ultimately won and it was all about the Scandinavians (yay to Gustav back in 4th), but really it was about the chaos of things that happened during the 7.5-hour race.

• While leading the race, Jonas Schomburg’s whole aerobar setup simply came off his bike. Officials eventually made him withdraw for safety reasons after it happened a second time.

• Early on the run, Kristian Hogenhaug got a penalty for “outside assistance,” which sounded like a coach running alongside him briefly (?).

• Patrick Lange got a penalty for something? Not taking off a swimskin? I dunno. But he was far back by T2.

• Kristian Blummenfelt cramped at one point.

• And then, of course, there was the DQ of Magnus Ditlev for “littering” by dropping a cup a few feet after the official end of the aid station. And then the rescinding of that DQ. Let’s put it this way: Magnus is one of the calmest guys on the circuit; if he’s swearing at the refs, then you know German officiating has gone off the ledge.

Did I miss anything?

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From the races

• Nice 70.3: Yay for Jess Learmonth — deciding to race Nice on such a short turnaround after the T100 SF & Vancouver was probably an open question, but she won and it was her first win post-baby I believe. Also, good for Marten Van Riel with his first win of the year, but not after a baby.

• World Triathlon Long-Distance Championships: A small field, but Marjolaine Pierre was back on top (and I believe now tries to lock down her Kona spot at IM Vittoria) and it seems like Antonio Benito has really had a breakout year, right?

Results: IM Frankfurt, Nice 70.3, Challenge Walchsee, World Triathlon Long-Distance World Champs, World Cup - Saidia

Mark your calendars

• And now it’s time for Challenge Roth this weekend! - It’s certainly not as deep a field as usual (though I think it’s a fair guess that some of the DNF athletes from Frankfurt will end up on the start line). But it’s still Roth. And I think we’re all curious if Sam Laidlow is back on form and how Vincent Luis will do. And I personally am curious if Laura Philipp goes after the overall iron-distance world record. My guess is yes. This could be the first women’s sub-8 we see!

  • And a shoutout to Sid, who is back on a start line and racing Challenge Roth for the 9th time, after a massive concussion and brain bleed when she was hit by a car during IM Brazil two years ago. LFG Sid.

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The -ish

Some of the things worth knowing about this week in our sports — or that I just think are interesting.

• Lots of thoughts coming out of Western States, but the main being this: Abby Hall won in the 4th fastest time ever on the course (on a very hot day) — but she wasn’t even supposed to be on the start line. She had a bad injury two years ago, major surgery, just missed out on qualifying twice this year. And then when another athlete got pregnant, their spot rolled down to her. (Also, Western States has lifetime pregnancy deferrals, fyi.) (Instagram)

• We did a whole episode of our new women’s sports podcast about Western States and it drops tomorrow with lots of interviews and clips. (Youtube)

• It seemed like there were a lot of infants and small babies up at the Foresthill aid station and on the side of the course, and part of me thought ‘well it’s just getting normalized and if you finally got in the lottery you’d have to just make it work.’ And then I realized one of the smallest babies was Caleb Olson’s, who won. (Instagram)

• This People Magazine headline caught my attention because it’s hilarious: “New Mom Says Her Husband Signed Up for an Ironman Right After She Gave Birth” and then the details are even funnier: He trains for at least an hour *every day.* Whoa. (PEOPLE)

• The shoes of Western States. The worry about if it’s all just getting too commercialized. The overhyped-ness, the more cameras than runners. Feels like pretty standard stuff. (Outside Run/Tony with a Sony)

• Other standard stuff: Track nerds complaining about Faith Kipyegon’s Sub4 attempt, and arguing that she was never going to be close so Nike just overhyped it and they wish people would just appreciate Faith’s running for what it is without the spectacle. I mean, sure, and I wish the world was different but it’s not. (Steve Magness/Slate)

• There was also a beer mile at Western States and a 100m race at TrailCon, neither of which I did. I also did not do mushrooms and get a tattoo in the parking lot, if we’re talking about pivotal trail running experiences I could have had last week. (Instagram)

• This guy ran a stroller mile in 4:26.29. (Instagram)

• And this guy ran 465 half-marathons in a year, which is apparently a world record. But that record seems highly suspect to me, because I’m pretty sure every runner at Western States ran the equivalent of more then 465 half-marathons last year. Like, that’s ~115 miles/week. Tough but not crazy. (NY Post)

• In other things that weirdly went viral: This triathlete hitting a bear during a race. (Slowtwitch)

• Gwen Jorgensen crashed. (Instagram)

• Jonny Brownlee is having a kid. (Instagram)

• The Pre Classic is this weekend and Faith Kipyegon is going for the actual 1500m world record now. (Marathon Handbook)

• The Tour de France Hommes also starts on Saturday. (Velo)

• Good thing there’s not a heat wave sweeping through Europe. (Associated Press)

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One last thing

The calmness with which second place finisher Fuzhao Xiang ate her noodles in the middle of the aid station chaos at mile 62 of Western States is something I aspire to.