#129: I'm back! Did you miss me
Pent-up thoughts.
issue #129: April 2, 2025
Well, you all, here I am, back from “leave” and running an experiment to see how long it takes to write a weekly newsletter in 20-minute chunks spread out over multiple days, with a six-week-old. It’s totally just like multisport.
Took me three days to write the weekly women’s sports newsletter I also do for Feisty (which I am sharing here because, by god, that amount of work is gonna get respected), so we’ll see how your weekly Wednesday Triathlonish newsletters go. The goal is to get this to you while it’s still Wednesday here in California. Because we gotta have goals.
Ultimately, we’ll also be covering more industry news overall (the -ish) here and have more of the triathlon results on the new website, but one goal at a time.
And this week, anyway, is very heavy on the race results and upcoming races. Because the sun is shining, the bikes are tuned, and it’s tri season again!
- Kelly
Lies, lies, and damn statistics
If the press releases are to be believed, then in the six weeks while I was out the future of triathlon suddenly started doing super great, amazing, so fantastic. Truly a stunning turnaround.
This is based on Ironman’s press release about its registration numbers, USA Triathlon’s release of its annual report, and the PTO’s press release about its new funding.
It’s not that I think any of these organizations are lying about their numbers. I think those numbers are probably correct. But it’s all in the context. If you tell me all of your races are selling out now, then an important piece of context would be whether or not you have fewer races now than you did before and if the overall number of athletes is up or down.
(For example, local news here did a segment the other night on the amazing work being done to get 405 women on the start line for Escape from Alcatraz. So inspiring. But then they never said how many athletes do the race in total. Like, historically, Alcatraz has about 1,600 athletes — which would make the number of women racing out of that really low (~25%), below industry averages for the distance, and definitely not deserving of a softly-lit promotional segment. Context matters.)
So, here are my general takeaways from the triathlon reports + this report on the state of trail running growth + other endurance sports business analyses I’ve been looking at while sitting on the couch:
Registration numbers for tri are on an upwards trend (good!), but are certainly not back to pre-pandemic rates (that’s OK)
There has been/is a consolidation of triathlon events happening — meaning more athletes condensed into fewer events and/or doing more separate races (sprint, relay, long course) across one event weekend
An inverse has happened in trail running — which reflects something triathlon went through back in its boom period — where there are so many new events that the number of athletes is being spread across them and it will eventually cause an oversaturation (which you’re already seeing with some historic events that used to always sell out now struggling in the new market)
The biggest increases in numbers are in “bucket list” events — ie. New York Marathon type registrations. If I was guessing, I’d think it’s a post-pandemic/YOLO/world-on-fire reaction to do the big things while you can
I am not sure those increases are trickling down to smaller or grassroots triathlons yet; I think many of the on-the-ground race organizers (who have also been hit with increased costs) would be hard-pressed to be convinced everything’s going great
There is definitely also an increase in the younger athletes (18-29ish) trying tri (good!), but it’s not clear yet if that’s a life cycle thing or a one-off thing (that’s OK). If I was guessing, I’d think there’s a lot to be said for that demographic wanting to get out there now (they had a rough coming-of-age) and meet people and try new things and touch grass (as they say), but it may not be permanent. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I think they might end up wanting to try something, do a bucket list or two, and then move onto the next thing (Hyrox, gravel, ultra, gym, whatever)
So. Things are good! There’s a lot happening in tri, the sport is hopefully on the up again, people are registering, the youths don’t hate us. Even if we’re not as trendy as run clubs. But it’s not super amazing fantastic yet; ultimately, triathlon will probably just be part of an overall ecosystem of endurance-y sports that don’t involve balls or hand-eye coordination.
Singapore v. Oceanside
First, a fun story from Oceanside (which is outside San Diego, if you were wondering, defined primarily by the nearby massive Marine Corps military base): Once, when I flew down to the race for work and went to check into my “inn” on the wrong side of the freeway, the clerk demanded a $400 security deposit in cash in case I “trashed the room.” And I said….no? Plus, I don’t carry that much cash, I’m not a drug dealer. And also, what kind of operation are you running. And she said trashing the room happens a lot and that since I seemed “irrationally upset” about the requirement she canceled my reservation. Because I was clearly going to run a drug-fueled prostitution ring out of my room. Just in case you had a different image of SoCal.
Oceanside 70.3 v. T100 Singapore
This weekend is a big one with the T100 season kicking off in Singapore and the IM Pro Series kicking off in Oceanside. (Yes, I’m aware IM actually kicked off with Geelong 70.3, but lets call that a mulligan because of the broadcast coverage problems, and with IM S. Africa, but the fields are much (!) much larger at Oceanside. It’s the start of the N. American season and what we lack in European intensity we make up for in volume.)
It’s almost too perfect a set-up: IM or T100? Singapore or Oceanside? Medium long-course or slightly longer medium-course?
Oceanside 70.3
Has a long long start list, as it always does (2x as long for the men! because dudes gonna dude), headlined by both the Norwegians & the current reigning IM World Champ, plus multiple previous Oceanside victors. If you want a quick summary, I thought @onyerleft had a good “breakdown.”
If I knew that Gustav was in fighting shape again, then I’d say no one beats him, but I don’t think we know yet if he’s fully back in form. I think on this course at this time of year you’d probably pick, like, a Rudy Von Berg then — but Oceanside often has surprise winners. It’s still early in the season and can be a crapshoot.
For the women, similarly, Tamara Jewett surprised here before, but otherwise Paula Findlay’s gotta be the favorite.
WATCH: Saturday at 6:40 a.m. PT/9:40 a.m. ET on proseries.ironman.com and Ironman Youtube and DAZN — except in N. America it appears to again *only* be on Outside Watch
T100 Singapore
I mean Ashleigh Gentle’s gonna win right? She’s just so good at this distance in these conditions. And, now, with Taylor Knibb out for “personal reasons,” the only person I can see beating Ashleigh is Julie Derron.
Are Taylor’s personal reasons that she personally plans to do IM Texas three weeks later and doesn’t want to fly to Singapore? Yeah, maybe. I don’t know. She’s not really one of those athletes who tries to get out of things; she generally tries to make good on her contracts and do the right thing. But are her personal reasons that her T100 contract this year just wasn’t that big and she’s gotta do what’s best for her and, anyway, the contract doesn’t say they have to do every race. Yeah, probably.
This, simply, is going to continue to be one of the PTO’s biggest problems with the T100. It’s just goddamn hard to promote and hype races when you don’t know who’s gonna be healthy and who’s gonna be there. And that problem’s not gonna change.
The men’s start list is way more wild. We’re all curious how Hayden Wilde and Vince Luis and Leo Bergere are going to perform at this distance. We already know Jelle Geens and Marten Van Riel can get it done (even if they just raced a half and a full, respectively). So the only question is: How much has 100km simply become the new short-course?
WATCH: Women on Friday at 11 p.m. PT/Saturday 2 a.m. ET & Men on Saturday at midnight PT/Sunday 3 a.m. ET, on HBO Max, Eurosport, and Outside Watch
From the races
CLASH Miami & the Collegiate Club National Championships: Always a fun one, or at least it used to be lots of fun. Queens University won the overall title again, because they’re really an NCAA program competing against clubs. Which is fine, not against the rules, just not as much fun.
At the corresponding Americas Cup race in Miami, Gwen Jorgensen was on top.
IM S. Africa: The big one this past weekend (and it had a swim!), with Magnus Ditlev biking just, well, so so much faster than anybody else. Though, I think we’d all like to see what Marten Van Riel can eventually do when he’s focused fully on fulls, since second isn’t bad as a “training race.” Even if we’re not totally sure that full focus will really happen this year. In the women’s race: A lot of people have said Anne Reischmann is ready to jump into the next tier of athletes (ie. the A tier), so the win here was certainly a step in that direction.
Lievin Indoor Triathlon: And, as expected, Cassandre Beaugrand won, and there were fireworks.
See the full results: Collegiate Club National Championships, Americas Cup Miami, IM S. Africa, Lievin Indoor Triathlon
Mark your calendar
Supertri E World Champs: Also this upcoming weekend, in London, with even more fireworks. Has a lot of the big Supertri names and a new rounds format (but you don’t really care about that). My money’s on Beth Potter.
WATCH: Saturday at 8:30 a.m. PT/11:30 a.m. ET on Eurosport, DAZN, TriathlonLive, and Supertri
The -ish
And the things worth knowing about this week in our sports.
The main question I have been pondering for the last six weeks: Do you really think Cam Wurf is going to do all of the Ironman Pro Series races? I certainly hope so. At least I hope he tries. (Instagram)
Supertri has fleshed out the rest of their mass participation expansion — “by Supertri” — with the Toronto Tri. And now I guess we’ll see if mass participation triathlon really is doing so amazing great in N. America or not. (Triathlonish/Supertri)
Honestly, I thought we already knew there was going to be a T100 Age Group World Championship in Qatar alongside the #RoadtoQatar elite world championship. Wasn’t that announced before, already?? Either way, it’s being announced again for the first time. And it’s Insta Official now. (World Triathlon/Instagram)
Ironman certainly can do a dramatic video edit better than anyone. (Instagram)
And the XTERRA world championship is back in the U.S. In a town you probably hadn’t heard of before. No, not St. George. (XTERRA)
The Barkley Marathons this year was deliberately harder than ever — after last year’s notoriously “easy” year. As always I have mixed feelings about Barkley and its myth machine. Can we all agree the whole thing is trying too hard to look like it isn’t trying hard, but at the same time still admire the athletes who make it through? (Sports Illustrated/Runner’s World/Trailmix)
Deeply similar feelings (but different!) about The Speed Project, the not-really-underground-anymore too-cool-for-school but also actually-sounds-kinda-fun relay from Vegas to L.A. In short: I’m not that interested in anything where I have to convince some arbitrary guy that I’m cool enough and goshdarnit good enough to be allowed into his race. (Running Sucks)
I’d also be a lot more sold on the new premium Garmin Connect+ membership if my Garmin was actually working smoothly right now and wasn’t still having problems syncing. (DC Rainmaker)
Let’s take bets on what Alex Yee runs for the London Marathon! I’m guessing 2:09. Drop your guesses below. (Triathlete)
Grand Slam Track kicks off this weekend in Jamaica. I still don’t totally understand it (I mean I *do* understand, but I don’t understand), but that doesn’t matter! It’s time to upend track and field! I think! (Citius Mag)
Shelby Houlihan is back. (Washington Post)
Speaking of former doping bans and comebacks: Marion Jones is doing a triathlon. (Instagram)
And speaking of things I don’t totally understand: On launched a triathlon academy for four athletes. I’m considering it the newest iteration of the old Zwift Academy model. (On)
Lots of pregnant athletes these days: The latest being Jordan Hasay and Iz King. (Instagram)
Mountain bikers are very upset that their podiums are going to be cut from five down to three. And I have no opinion, but I do love getting into the weeds on other sports’ drama. (Instagram)
Another totally random sport I watched a lot of last week: The Figure Skating World Championships. And if you don’t know Alysa Liu’s story, let me sum up real quick: She was the youngest ever national champion at 13 years old and won a world championship bronze at 16, and then she quit because it was too much of a miserable grind. But after three years away, she came back and has been having FUN this time around — and then, this past weekend, she won the whole damn thing and seemed to simply being enjoying the actual sport so much. I’m not going to say no one saw it coming, but not many people saw it coming. And it was one of the purest sports things I’ve seen in a long time. (NBC/Instagram)
If you haven’t read Caley’s opus on what went wrong (is going wrong?) with Outside Inc and its accompanying brands/history/media landscape, it’s a pretty good sum-up of a lot of conversations a lot of us have had over the years. And if you ever ask me in person, I might sketch you my hand-drawn chart of the same things. (Escape Collective)
One last thing
😢
