#113: Standing on a seesaw
Plus, less deep thoughts about the PTO and NCAA.
issue #113: Nov. 13, 2024
All-sporters, I’m on my last work trip of the year (probably last until after this kid is born + a few months) and in Calgary for a bunch of meetings, so sorry for the late newsletter and for no audio version this week.
I’ll also be shifting the newsletter to come out more midday Wednesdays moving forward, instead of first thing in the morning, just because of my backlog of work on Sundays-Tuesdays. A little more time will give me, well, a little more time. But, everything triathlon-ish will still hit your inbox every Wednesday, don’t worry!
Now onto a busy week.
- Kelly
A tipping point
“I’ve just never had to think about money.”
”Wow, that must free up some time.”
A big thing happened here in the U.S. last week. A majority of Americans (50.3%) voted Donald Trump back into the office of President and gave Republicans control of the Senate, most likely the House, and the Supreme Court. From a textbook historical perspective, that degree of conservative swing is both somewhat predictable but also means there will definitively be broad sweeping policy and cultural implications, probably for decades to come. And because the U.S. is the U.S., those implications will extend well beyond our borders.
It’d be nice not to have to worry about how much and what those changes will be, for it not to affect my life. That’d free up some time. But that’s not how the world works.
I think it’s probably hard to convince anyone who’s ever been told they’re not allowed to play that sports aren’t political. Sports have always been political, since sports were invented. That was kinda the whole point of sports in the first place.
Who has access to what and how is determined by policies and laws, and those policies and laws are determined by who is elected into office. How we view the world is shaped by what is said by the people in charge, by what we choose to care about. Those things are almost certainly going to be changed by the rhetoric that was used this election and by whatever happens next.
I’ve been waiting, not just for the election, but for a couple of months, to see which direction things tip in triathlon, in women’s sports. If we go backwards or forwards. It’s felt like it could go either way. That’s probably still true, that we’re still sitting on a fulcrum, but it’s hard not to sense the seesaw tipping.
Sports, the outdoors, and especially mass participation sports like triathlon have never existed outside the context of the world in which they operate. That wasn't true before and it's almost certainly less true now.
T100 takes Dubai. And then…?
Now for the big triathlon this week. Here is the list of athletes I can tell have so far pulled out of the T100 Dubai Grand Finale: Jelle Geens, Daniel Baekkegard, Sam Laidlow, Lucy Charles-Barclay, Chelsea Sodaro, Emma Pallant-Browne. (Obviously, Daniela Ryf and Javi Gomez are also still out. And Holly Lawrence and Skye Moench of course being on contracts means the women’s list is slightly smaller.)
But we’ve still got: Taylor Knibb v. Ashleigh Gentle — which should be quite interesting given Taylor’s dominance v. Ashleigh’s ability to run in the heat. And we’ve got Marten Van Riel — who’s gotta be the heavy favorite now. I think the men have been having an even harder time trying to make the training work for both kinds and distances of racing, just because of the style and speed of the packs.
Triathlon Insights did a good job of breaking down the Dubai storylines. Basically there are a couple of things happening: People trying to lock down contracts for next year (which requires a top 10 in the T100 rankings and then the next six in the overall PTO rankings), or those trying to up their final T100 standing and get into some better prize money.
(The interesting wildcard is Julie Derron because — hear me out — she’s technically a wildcard not a contracted Olympic athlete, so she doesn’t get to average her two other races for a third score like Taylor Spivey and Flora Duffy will. But she’s still currently 9th in the T100 standings with just two scores. So.)
What’s next for the PTO then?
Dubai is also supposed to be some kind of multisport mega participation festival thing. They’re claiming they’ll get 10,000+ participants — but my understanding was that’s at least in part because it’s being run in conjunction with an already existing festival there. People in Vegas told me the age-group numbers were closer to 800-900 there, and in Ibiza I believe they’re saying it was 1,200.
The Professional Triathletes Organization has made no secret now of the fact that they’re planning on expanding their mass participation/age-group race business as part of 2025-and-beyond plans.
It’s not that I don’t understand why you’d think mass participation de-risks investment, and why you’d want that “easy” money, and why you’d have to sell that belief to new funders, which I’m very much guessing is what happened here. But. 1. The PTO very specifically originally launched as a pro athletes-first, media rights business to sell the spectator side of the sport — not an events business; that was literally the point, and 2. Race directing is famously UNPROFITABLE. Like, look, there’s a reason there aren’t a ton of huge for-profit participation race companies. And I can’t imagine it’ll go better trying to do both things well at the same time.
But, it’s not like I’m an investor, so. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
RELATED: Athlete ownership, investment rounds, and the PTO
ASU finally loses
I also still don’t know if NCAA triathlon is going to ultimately happen — ie. if it will officially eventually gain NCAA championship status. But it was a big landmark in that journey when ASU finally lost the national title race this past weekend after seven years. Not because I have anything against ASU, but because if you want to have a competitive landscape you have to have a competitive landscape.
University of Arizona topped ASU in the team race, going 2nd, 3rd, 6th individually. It was via the weird format discussed last week because of hurricane damage (time trial swim on Friday, pursuit-style bike-run on Saturday). There were DI, DII, DIII titles. I’d also say it seems like the race overall, at least at the top level, has gotten more competitive and deeper. Someone asked me this weekend if the best club teams could still beat the NCAA teams, and I don’t think so, not anymore. Like, Cal could be competitive in the mix, maybe a couple other individual athletes, but that’s probably about it at the draft-legal format.
If it doesn’t work out, if the NCAA never approves women’s triathlon to become an official sport, it’ll be for a few reasons: because of challenges with staging races and meeting all the specific requirements for teams and athletes and events to count towards the necessary marks, because of recruiting struggles, and probably because of the whole NCAA chaos overall.
Full results here and top teams here.
Best of the rest
World Triathlon World Cup - Miyazaki: Gwen Jorgensen was back on top. And another (another!) French man wins — does their pipeline ever end?!
World Triathlon World Cup - Brasilia: And, personally, it was good to see Tamara Gorman on a World Cup podium too. Plus, Rosa Tapia took the tape.
Melbourne 70.3: An all-Australian podium men & women, except for Anna Bergsten in 2nd, and another (another!) 70.3 win for Ellie Salthouse.
Results: World Triathlon World Cup - Miyazaki, World Cup - Brasilia, Challenge Xiamen, Melbourne 70.3
The -ish
Stuff from around our sports worth knowing about this week.
USAT announced a new development group and daily training environment led by Katie Zaferes. While it’ll be open to men and women, the focus is certainly on creating a pathway for young U.S. female athletes to progress to world-class level, similar to Project Podium — given some concerns about how that is very much missing right now. (USAT/Triathlete)
Luisa Baptista was at the World Cup in Brazil and it was good to see her at least running again, almost a year after being hit by a motorcyclist. (Instagram/Triathlon Magazine)
The mayor of Kona was voted out, which may end up being important because I think the old mayor had some anti-Ironman-ness concerns. (Honolulu Civil Beat)
Should Lionel Sanders do the 70.3 World Championships? (Instagram)
But shoutout to Morgan Pearson, who was up in the comments telling Sanders to do Indian Wells instead. (Morgan will be making his 70.3 debut in Indian Wells and has a TT bike now, so.) (Instagram)
Patrick Lange actually said back at Kona that he wasn’t going to do anymore races this season, but it’s official now. (Tri247)
David McNamee also officially announced his retirement. (Instagram)
And, we forgot to mention Cam Wurf’s 2:36:33 New York Marathon a week after Kona, but of course he did because he’s Cam Wurf. (Instagram)
After 33 years, there’s a new 50-mile women’s world record of 5:31:56. (iRunFar)
Two American guys did a 100-mile race in Antartica under 24 hours. (Yahoo)
Canyon Speedmax CF tri bikes with a V21 Aerostem are being recalled. (Tri247)
We went deep on the Norwegian Method for this quarter’s Book Club — Q&A coming to paying subscribers probably this weekend — and I found this breakdown from the daughter of one of the forefathers of Norwegian training a good dive into the reasons why not everyone is successful on “the method.” (Medium)
Coach Olav Aleksander Bu is officially the new coach for pro cycling Team Uno X-Mobility. (Velo)
Heat training protocols that were designed for men may not work for women. (Escape Collective)
Coaches are on the rise in ultra running, unsurprisingly, but still less used than in triathlon I’d say, also unsurprisingly. (iRunFar)
A super detailed super speculative super silly piece on what would happen if Kilian Jornet tried to get into tri. (Triathlete)
F1 driver Valtteri Bottas did an Ironman entirely within his house. (Instagram)
Some day soon we’ll talk all about the chaos of the conference disintegration and the NCAA dealing with its backlog of athlete pay issues. But for now: The football realignment means a lot of travel for a lot of college athletes. And the NCAA v. the House settlement may mean big roster caps for the Olympic sports. FFS, JUST SPIN FOOTBALL OFF ALREADY! (New York Times/Runner’s World)
World Athletics published the findings of a study on athlete harassment during the Olympics. (World Athletics)
One last thing
Some triathlon spectator puns to keep you going next race.
